QOTW (Nov 8th 2016): What were the volume and volatility conditions around the last election?
What were the volume and volatility conditions around the last election?
Chart 1: US Dollar Volumes in Q4 2012 with the Election
Chart 2: Annualized Volatility for S&P 500 Stocks in Q4 2012
Happy Election Day! We took a look at market conditions surrounding the 2012 election.
In 2012, we saw slightly elevated volumes for the S&P 500 on November 7th, the day after the US election, but volumes were within the quarterly range. We saw a similar pattern across the globe. Annualized volatility numbers began to rise from quarterly lows in the days following the 2012 presidential election.
We suspect 2016 will likely be quite different (especially if we see a surprise outcome); for real time updates on volume and volatility conditions on the days surrounding the election, take a look at ITG’s Smart Market Indicators.